This was linked by idlex over on the Bojo blog, and a very interesting read it is, too. The current situation in Iraq is morally, fiscally, and militarily unsupportable, and now that the election is over it can’t even be explained away by the need to pimp the vote. Surely Bush can’t hope to keep this horrible, blood-sucking, pointless conflict going long enough to have an impact on the next federal election…he’s not a complete microcephalic moron.
Oh, right.
In any case, the descent of Iraq into civil war is at this point inevitable, as it may indeed have been from the outset. When you remove a dictator and fail to replace him immediately with at least a bureaucracy that will make the trains run on time, you doom yourself to the futile and deadly task of attempting to keep an order that simply does not exist to be kept.
Here is the step by step instruction manual on How to Cut and Run, by someone who knows what he’s talking about, unlike those chickenhawks in the White House Cabal.
We could lead the Mideast to peace, but only if we stop refusing to do the right thing
By William E. Odom
Lt. Gen. WILLIAM E. ODOM (Ret.) is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and a professor at Yale University.
October 31, 2006THE UNITED STATES upset the regional balance in the Middle East when it invaded Iraq. Restoring it requires bold initiatives, but “cutting and running” must precede them all. Only a complete withdrawal of all U.S. troops — within six months and with no preconditions — can break the paralysis that now enfeebles our diplomacy. And the greatest obstacles to cutting and running are the psychological inhibitions of our leaders and the public.
Our leaders do not act because their reputations are at stake. The public does not force them to act because it is blinded by the president’s conjured set of illusions: that we are reducing terrorism by fighting in Iraq; creating democracy there; preventing the spread of nuclear weapons; making Israel more secure; not allowing our fallen soldiers to have died in vain; and others.
But reality can no longer be avoided. It is beyond U.S. power to prevent bloody sectarian violence in Iraq, the growing influence of Iran throughout the region, the probable spread of Sunni-Shiite strife to neighboring Arab states, the eventual rise to power of the anti-American cleric Muqtada Sadr or some other anti-American leader in Baghdad, and the spread of instability beyond Iraq. All of these things and more became unavoidable the day that U.S. forces invaded.
These realities get worse every day that our forces remain in Iraq. They can’t be wished away by clever diplomacy or by leaving our forces in Iraq for several more years…
raincoaster 
Interesting argument: “We have to leave because we can’t make things any worse”.
I’d rather see some serious political will put into the idea of trying to make things better. Iran has influence in part because Shia muslims seek a position of strength in order to ensure their own protection.
If the clowns who whipped up this war had comitted the minimum number of troops required in the first place, there might have been a chance to keep the situation lidded. Two cops don’t go into a bar, start a brawl, and then pick out and arrest the five biggest guys there.
Gen. Shineseki said it would take “hundreds of thousands of troops” to keep the peace once the invasion succeeded–450,000 I think was the number mentioned. Rumsfeld & Co. disagreed.
Like Afghanistan, I believe that having broken it, the invaders have a responsibility to fix it. If that means comitting another 200,000 troops I honestly think they should do it, rather than leaving Iraqis to the tender mercies of one another, the Ayatollahs, and possibly Israel.
Who’s gonna pay for it? Well ultimately the troops and their families, of course. And the Iraqis and their families. Dubya will be long retired to Crawford, and Rummy will be living at Bethsada Naval Center by the time their victims are all given decent burials.
But the invaders have a responsibility. They have sacrificed over 500,000 Iraqi lives and some 3000 US ones to make the Great and Free Democratic Nation of Iraq possible. Let’s see some credible action on that front before they fade out to let the slaughter begin.
Oh–and if you want to see fast action–draft the Bush daughters and send them out for a tour or two.
I agree that the invaders have a moral responsibility to Iraq, but I believe that by getting out they will allow Iraq to find its new mode of being much faster than by remaining and, essentially, becoming the story. Their presence at this point is nothing more than an open wound, and the presence of the invaders allows Iraq to delegate responsibility for forming a new, functioning country and defer that indefinitely.
I don’t believe Iraq will form a new, functioning country. There isn’t the will among its people or leaders. Possibly in part because day-to-day survival is a greater concern. I also feel that these may not be people who can truly understand a federated multiparty, multi-ethnic, multi-religious governing state; Either you have power and other people obey you, or you don’t, and you do as others tell you.
So any nation state that emerged from the rubble would be something more akin to Somalia: where the borders of the internal states get established at the point where the local warlords run out of ammunition.
And if its population were left alone to do as it pleases I believe the civil war would eventually result in Iraq’s partition by Iran, Syria, and possibly Jordan. Turkey would never get its EU membership as it would be too busy trying to quash the Kurdistan Liberation Army. And how many would die as those things happened?
As General Odom points out, the country is in near-open revolt now. Why not treat it that way? If what’s required is that two soldiers patrol every city block for the next five years–or fifty, then perhaps that’s what should be done.
Simply leaving them to fall on each other would be worse.
The problem isn’t just defective planning, an undemocratic cultural foundation, and the conflict of survival-level living. It’s a lack of political will in the US to acknowledge the failure of the initial strategy and truly look in new directions.
How about this? The government of the United States openly acknowledges that they’ve bitten off rather more than they can chew and asks for help from the other Gulf countries–starting with asking Iran to provide security forces to patrol with US forces near the Saudi Border?
Sure it’s insane, but so’s the whole situation.
If the US would take back the 40% of overseas aid that it gives to Israel, they might be able to afford an army that large, but without a plan all they’ll do is stabilize the situation. May I suggest that a period of chaos, followed by self-determination (bloody as that may be), is a more effective way to a new order? Because the whole thing is, there IS no exit strategy, thus there is no way out, ever.
If I had known what this war would cost in terms of lives, I wouldn’t have supported it, which I did in the first place and mea culpa. Take it up with the White House. They almost certainly knew but refused to listen.
Now, I believe that the death toll will be even worse if the US withdraws, and worse even than that is the prospect of yet another hostile theocratic dictatorship (or a pair of them) materializing there once the blood dries up and the dust settles.
But I believe that to have been inevitable all along. The longer the coalition troops stay there, the more demonized the West will be in the eyes of all. There will indeed be theocracies that arise, but the possibility exists that they will be rent asunder by the political forces that have destroyed so many attempts at governing the region. I expect that some kind of Kurdish homeland will emerge, and that the escalation will drain resources from the jihadists that they would otherwise deploy around the world. It will be hell for anyone living there. But it will be a hotter hell for a shorter period of time.
the only way we could stabilize things over there is by slaughtering people who are (justly) resisting our forceful occupation of their country. civil war is not imminent– it’s been a reality on the ground for many months. the same will continue whether we’re there or not, but at least, as rc says, our leaving will give the iraqis a chance to exercise their right to self-determination.
the u.s. government lied to its citizens, betrayed its troops, and has killed, crippled, or maimed hundreds of thousands of iraqis under false pretenses, in violation of international law, and for no good reason. i think its safe to say such a government has ceded any possible claim to the type of moral authority required to determine when and how to use military force. the troops should come home now. if we feel we have some obligation to the iraqi people, we should provide whatever functioning local and civic councils/organizations we can with $$$ to rebuild the country we’ve destroyed. no strings attached.
incidentally, since this blog originates in canada, i think the best analysis/reporting on the situation in iraq has been done be a torontarian. it’s available at http://www.harpers.org/BaghdadYearZero.html
I marched against going into Iraq and my position has not altered. If the original, Bush/Rumsfeld reasons for going to war were real, then why the hell has North Korea remained un-invaded (or should that be “vaded”)? In another thread you will see me using the word “tribal” a lot. This is what has caused Africa to have so many internecine wars and genocidal episodes. It is what is at the base of most of the Middle Eastern conflicts. When Europe took over Africa in the 18th century and the Middle East after the First World War, the nations of Europe drew straight line borders with no regard for traditional tribal land ownership. It is those straight lines which are now biting us! The best we can do is to get out and allow the infection of false borders to work itself out. It may be harsh for a century, but it would lead to a solution. The current adventure by the USA (and Australia) will only lead to the economic demise of the West.
And the UK too, don’t forget. Blair has a lot to answer for.
theylion, I’m in complete agreement. Thank you for the link; it’s hard to imagine Naomi Klein as a war reporter, but I will give it a read.
Archie, perceptive as always, and thank you for the change in perspective. All too often we cannot see the forest for the trees, and need help to step back and take the long view.
I liken the whole thing to going up on someone’s front porch, kicking our a column and holding up the roof while getting stung to death by the yellowjacket nest loosened when the column dropped out. There’s no good or graceful way in or out of this one, folks
It’s an oldie but a goodie; “declare victory and withdraw”. We don’t owe the Iraqis anything. We’ve made it possible for them to go about the business of killing their brothers in the name of their god, and that’s the higher, better purpose in Islam. When they’re finished they can set about the business of oppressing their women.
Charming. I’m going to leave you to the Muslim commenters here, because I’m mean.
Bush declared victory over three years and two thousand American lives ago. There is no question of victory here, only questions of bloodshed and obligation. Try to drag yourself out of your misanthropic rut and see the bigger picture, if only because the Saudis own so much of your country.
Thank you for mistaking my ramblings as intelligent speech :)
Now, J! When your tiny braincell splits and doubles your intelligence, it may be possible for you to learn enough to be able to dicuss something you currently so obviously know nothing about. Till then – Shut the Fuck Up !
Oh no, I encourage the bigots to speak their minds: how else are we to tell them from the normal people?
I have found that the bigots in cyberspace are congenitally incapable of shutting up. I just enjoy poking them with a sharpened stick.
If our enemies fight among themselves — it would be better than fighting with us. However, because our country has made ourselves so dependent on oil — that is a problem, especially if Shitte Iran battles with other Sunni Arab countries and takes over their oil supplies. Even though many people don’t believe what the Bible says, I believe Jerusalem and Israel are extremely relevant to Christians throughout the world. The Bible says at the end of man’s age (when all mankind could be destroyed by their own weapons) — the King of the South (Iran, etc?) will push at the King of the North (Europe?). The King of the North will come down with a flood and overflow it. Then a one-world-government will be set up. It will look like a lamb on the surface, but underneath will be ruthless to anyone who doesn’t “take the mark of the beast” (the beast is a leader of doing “man’s will” (as a false religion) as opposed to “God’s will” — and following God’s commandments the way He wants them kept). Jerusalem will be surrounded by armies representing the nations of the world. Christ will return from heaven soon after this and destroy those opposing Him and God’s rule over the conduct of mankind. He will set up His Kingdom to rule the earth with God’s Commandments enforced. They will cause a “heaven on earth” and an Eden of joy beyond understanding for everyone left. (When everyone is required to be honest; people learn how to have a happy marriage and stay married with no adultery or divorce; people don’t covet other people’s land or goods; everyone tells the “flat footed” truth with wisdom; no swearing; no statue/idol worship; people care about each other according to God’s laws, etc.) His kingdom will be forever. The idiocy of fighting against the one who gives you every heartbeat, every breath and only things for your good in the end — is not smart. To purposely end up spending an eternity separated from God and His intelligent goodness for His creation — is beyond stupidity! Humans have no strength or intelligence to fight God and His Laws. When we do, we become like Satan and possibly will get to spend eternity with the most hateful, wicked being in the universe!
Thank you. We have the Book of Revelations up here in Canuckistan as well.
What’s really stupid of humans is their tendency to wrench things that don’t fit into theories that explain their prejudices.
Australia is south of Iran…and it has a queen! That’s way closer to a king than a president is! Blame Australia!
Wait–you mean all we have to do is require people to be honest? That’s terrific! Let’s make a law.
Oh but, wait, hang on. How do we know that people are being honest about being honest? Maybe we could make another law requiring …
Oh–and from experience, 100% honesty and marriage? Extremely bad idea.
I personally believe that if Jesus ever shows up again, he’ll spend an instructive half-hour bitchslapping Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell and Donald Wildmon.